Yosemite National Park Predictions
A summary of projections for Yosemite National Park during the 21st century under various emissions scenarios:
Climate and Hydrology
- Temperatures in the Park increase, especially minimum winter temperature
- Snowpack is reduced
- Snowmelt happens earlier
Carbon Cycle
- Yosemite ecosystems become net sources of CO2
- Declines in carbon pools occur under all scenarios but for different reasons
- Overall plant biomass declines
Fire
- The extent of wildfire expands and carbon emissions increase
- Fire drives major changes in montane conifer forests
Montane Chaparral and Hardwoods
- Lower elevation western Yosemite see incursions of hardwood and chaparral
- There are chaparral incursions into areas currently dominated by other vegetation types
Montane Ecosystems
- The montane conifer forests are the most resilient of the forest ecosystems to increased drought, but they are vulnerable to wildfires that, in this model, allow replacement by other vegetation types.
Subalpine Ecosystems
- The subalpine conifer forests shift up-slope and decrease in total area
- The subalpine forest zone disappears almost completely in 2 of the 3 scenarios
Alpine Vegetation Communities
- Alpine vegetation communities are lost
Desert
- Desert vegetation, novel to the region, is predicted to appear under all scenarios on the eastern side of the Sierra Nevada.
Reference:
Panek, J., D. Conklin, B. Kuhn, D. Bachelet, and J. van Wagtendonk. Projected Vegetation Changes Over the 21st Century in Yosemite National Park Under Three Climate Change and CO2 Emission Scenario. (2009). Report to the National Park Service under task agreement #J8R07070021. (pdf)
