Conversion Potential, Pacific Northwest, (Figure 6 from Wilson et al, 2014)

This dataset is Figure 6 in the publication:  Wilson, T.S., Sleeter, B.M., Sleeter, R. R., Soulard, C.E. 2014, Land use threats and protected areas: a scenario-based landscape level approach, Land, 3 (2): 362-389

Figure 6 caption:  "Conversion potential into developed, agriculture and forest harvest lands in thePacific Northwest from 2000 to 2100. Values 1–7 represent the number of scenarios projecting land-use conversion over the modeled period."

Abstract of the publication:  "Anthropogenic land use will likely present a greater challenge to biodiversitythan climate change this century in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Even if species areequipped with the adaptive capacity to migrate in the face of a changing climate, they willlikely encounter a human-dominated landscape as a major dispersal obstacle. Our goal wasto identify, at the ecoregion-level, protected areas in close proximity to lands with a higherlikelihood of future land-use conversion. Using a state-and-transition simulation model, wemodeled spatially explicit (1 km2) land use from 2000 to 2100 under seven alternativeland-use and emission scenarios for ecoregions in the Pacific Northwest. We analyzedscenario-based land-use conversion threats from logging, agriculture, and developmentnear existing protected areas. A conversion threat index (CTI) was created to identifyecoregions with highest projected land-use conversion potential within closest proximity toexisting protected areas. Our analysis indicated nearly 22% of land area in the CoastRange, over 16% of land area in the Puget Lowland, and nearly 11% of the Cascades hadvery high CTI values. Broader regional-scale land-use change is projected to impact nearly40% of the Coast Range, 30% of the Puget Lowland, and 24% of the Cascades (i.e., twohighest CTI classes). A landscape level, scenario-based approach to modeling future landuse helps identify ecoregions with existing protected areas at greater risk from regionalland-use threats and can help prioritize future conservation efforts."