Chesapeake Bay region sea-level rise modelling - Habitat classification, 2050 (B1 mean scenario)

This dataset is part of an extensive analysis of sea-level rise impacts on coastal habitats along the Chesapeake Bay, Delaware Bay, and the ocean beaches of southern New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia. The National Wildlife Federation commissioned Jonathan S. Clough of Warren Pinnacle Consulting, Inc., to apply the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM, Version 5.0) to the Chesapeake Bay region. The SLAMM model is widely regarded as the premier research tool for simulating the dominant processes involved in wetland conversions and shoreline modifications during long-term sea-level rise. Our analysis looked at a range of sea-level rise scenarios from the 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment, ranging from a 12.2-inch rise to 27.2-inch rise by 2100 (presented here). We also modeled a rise of up to 2 meters (78.7 inches) by 2100 to accommodate for recent studies that suggest a significantly greater sea-level rise is possible during this century. Results for the entire study region and all scenarios are available at www.nwf.org/sealevelrise.

The seven sea-level rise scenarios include:

IPCC B1 Mean = 31 cm rise by 2100

IPCC A1B Mean = 39 cm rise by 2100

IPCC A1f1 Mean = 49 cm rise by 2100

IPCC A1B Max = 69 cm rise by 2100

1 meter rise by 2100

1.5 meter rise by 2100

2 meter rise by 2100

Under the A1B Mean, A1B Max, 1 meter, and 1.5 meter scenarios, developed land was assumed to be protected through the construction of dikes or other protective measures. For the B1 Mean, A1f1 Mean, and 2 meter rise scenarios, this assumption was turned off and developed lands were allowed to be converted.