Predicted probability of marten year-round occurrence
derived from future (2046-2065) climate projections and vegetation simulations.
Projected marten distribution was created with Maxent (Phillips et al. 2006)
using marten detections (N = 102, spanning 1993 – 2011) and eight predictor
variables: mean potential evapotranspiration, mean annual precipitation, mean
fraction of vegetation carbon burned, mean forest carbon (g C m2),
mean fraction of vegetation carbon in forest, understory index (fraction of
grass vegetation carbon in forest), average maximum tree LAI, and modal
vegetation class.
Future climate drivers were generated using statistical
downscaling (simple delta method) of general circulation model projections, in
this case CSIRO Mk3 (Gordon 2002) under the A2 emission scenario (Naki?enovi?
et al. 2000). The deltas (differences for temperatures and ratios for
precipitation) were used to modify PRISM 800m historical baseline (Daly et al. 2008).
Vegetation variables were simulated with the MC1 dynamic
global vegetation model (Bachelet et al. 2001). This marten distribution
projection was generated as part of a pilot project to apply and evaluate the
Yale Framework (Yale Science Panel for Integrating Climate Adaptation and
Landscape Conservation Planning).
Grid Value Predicted
Probability of Occurrence
1
0 – 0.2
2
0.2 – 0.4
3
0.4 – 0.6
4
0.6 – 0.8
5
0.8 – 1.0
Bachelet D., R.P. Neilson, J.M.
Lenihan, and R.J. Drapek. 2001. Climate change effects on vegetation
distribution and carbon budget in the U.S. Ecosystems 4:164-185.
Daly, C., M. Halbleib, J.I.
Smith, W.P. Gibson, M.K. Doggett, G.H. Taylor, J. Curtis, and P.A. Pasteris.
2008. Physiographically-sensitive mapping of temperature and precipitation
across the conterminous United States. International
Journal of Climatology 28: 2031-2064.
Gordon, H.B., L.D. Rotstayn,
J.L. McGregor, M.R. Dix, E.A. Kowalczyk, S.P. O’Farrell, L.J. Waterman, A.C.
Hirst, S.G. Wilson, M.A. Collier, I.G. Watterson, and T.I. Elliott. 2002. The CSIRO Mk3 climate system model.
CSIRO Atmos. Res. Tech. Pap., 60, 130 pp., Commonwealth Scientific and
Industrial Research Organisation, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia.
Naki?enovi?, N. and R. Swart,
Eds. 2000. Emissions Scenarios: A
Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K.
Phillips, S.J., R.P. Anderson, and R.E. Schapire. 2006. Maximum
entropy modeling of species geographic distributions.
Ecological
Modelling 190: 231-259.
Note: The MC1 model is described in data basin
(http://databasin.org/climate-center/features/mc1-dynamic-global-vegetation-model).