This dataset represents projected spotted owl habitat probability of
occupancy for the climate of 2061-2090 based on the mean habitat
occupancy predictions from three representative climate projections:
lowest warming (GCM GISS_ER with IPCC storyline B1), moderate warming
(GCM ECHAM5 SRES with storyline A2), and highest warming (GCM IPSL_CM4
with storyline A2). In Carroll and others (in prep.), we evaluate how
a system of reserves can be made resilient to climate change. First, we
assess how well the NFP's reserve network currently protects habitat for
spotted owl and rare "Survey and Manage" species. Then, we
assess how these species will fare under climate change. Our results
suggest that the spotted owl acts as fairly good "umbrella"
species for protecting localized species. We identify additional
coarse-scale priority areas for localized species, protection of which
would allow achievement of the goals of the Survey and Manage program
while reducing the resources necessary for pre-project surveys. We found
that climate change will produce both winners and losers among the
localized species. Whereas the net effect over all species may be
neutral, protecting the losing species will require increasingly more
area. Finally, we identify coarse-scale priority areas that can act as
refugia for both the owl and localized species under climate change,
thus potentially forming the foundations of a resilient reserve system.
Predictive habitat models are based on climate and vegetation
(Strittholt et al. 2006) variables. Owl models are based on a location
dataset from Carroll and Johnson (2008). Colors are defined for percent
occupancy as follows: Light Beige: 1-10% Tan: 11-20% Brown: 21-30%
Red-Brown: 31-40% Cyan: 41-50% Blue-Green: 51-60% Dark Green: 61-70%
Blue: 71-80% Dark Blue: 81-90%