Forecast Barren Land Extent Under GFDL A2 Scenario, 2080-2099

This collection of layers includes summary statistics from input and output data used for simulation of vegetation response to climate change in California. The historical data layers represent the 30 year period from 1961 to 1990. Future data layers represent each four 20 year periods: 2010-2029, 2030-2049, 2060-2079, and 2080-2099. The simulations were performed using MC1 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), source code revision 152. The model was parameterized and evaluated by the DGVM research group at the US Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station, with support from the Western Wildland Environmental Threat Assessment Center. The model was parameterized to maximize concordance with maps of potential natural vegetation and seasonal patterns of vegetation production for the historical period (1895-2009).

The input data representing historical climate spans 1895 to 2009, and were downscaled by Flint and Flint (2012) from 2.5 arc-minute resolution PRISM data (Daly et al 1994). The input data representing future climate comprise four climate projections, representing two SRES emissions scenarios A2 and B1 simulated by two general circulation models (GCM’s) PCM and GFDL. For details on the selection of the four climate projections, see Cayan et al (2008). PCM’s climate projections span years 2000 to 2009, and GFDL’s climate projections span years 2001 to 2100. The input climate data were originally downscaled to 270 m resolution by Flint and Flint (2012) but aggregated up to 30 arc-second resolution for MC1 simulation. All input and output data cover all of California and the major basins draining into it.