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Change in the mean annual fraction of cell burned between 1971-2000 and 2070-2099, as simulated by MC1 under Hadley A2 for the Apache-Sitgreaves study area, Arizona, USA
Change in the mean annual fraction of cell burned between 1971-2000 and 2070-2099, as simulated by MC1 under Hadley A2 for the Apache-Sitgreaves study area, Arizona, USA
This
map represents the change between 1971-2000 and 2070-2099 in the mean annual
fraction of each gridcell affected by fire, as simulated by the model MC1 under
the Hadley future climate projection and A2 anthropogenic emissions
scenario. Data values are calculated as PART_BURN(2070-2099) minus
PART_BURN(1971-2000). PART_BURN data is from MC1 version B60. The average annual fraction of cell burned for the respective
30-year periods increased in some of the 5,311 grid cells of the
Apache-Sitgreaves study area and decreased in others. The range of data values is from -0.077 to +0.163. The mean
value is +0.031.
The vegetation model MC1 (e.g. Bachelet et al. 2001) was used to
simulate vegetation dynamics, associated carbon and nitrogen cycle,
water budget, and wild fire impacts at two study sites in eastern
Oregon (Deschutes and Fremont-Winema National Forests) and in Arizona (Apache Sitgreaves National
Forest area) in the context of a project funded by the USDA Forest
Service (PNW 09-JV-11261900-003).
Historical climate
input data used to run the model were provided by the PRISM group
(Chris Daly, OSU) at a 30arc second (800m) spatial grain.
The model was
also run using future climate change projections from various general
circulation models including Hadley, CSIRO Mk3 and MIROC 3.2 medres. Future
climate change climate datasets were generated through statistical
downscaling from general circulation model output using a simple
anomaly method and the
climatology (1971-2000) from the PRISM group at 30arc second spatial
grain.
The model was run assuming that nitrogen demand from
the plants was always met so that the nitrogen concentrations in
various plant parts never dropped below their minimum reported values.
A CO2 enhancement effect increased productivity and water use
efficiency as the atmospheric CO2 concentration increased.
Data Provided By:
David Conklin, Conservation Biology Institute
Content date:
not specified
Citation:
D.
Bachelet, R.P. Neilson, J.M. Lenihan, and R.J. Drapek. Climate Change Effects
on Vegetation distribution and Carbon Budget in the U.S.
2001. Ecosystems 4(3):164-185.
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The Conservation Biology Institute (CBI) provides scientific expertise to support the conservation and recovery of biological diversity in its natural state through applied research, education, planning, and community service.