Flat-tailed horned lizard - Species Distribution Model, DRECP

These data are statistical model outputs for Flat-tailed horned lizard (Phrynosoma mcallii) species distribution, completed by Frank Davis’ Biogeography Lab at UC Santa Barbara. Based on examination of species observation data and consultation with biologists, CBI used the model's broad extent masked to the following USFS ecoregion subsections: 322Cd, 322Cc, 322Cb, 322Ca. Post-processing was also performed to remove scattered pixels in the agricultural lands to the south of the Salton Sea. Post-processing was performed again on 6/25/2013 to remove additional habitat predicted in agricultural lands.

The binary layer depicts predicted suitable habitat using the equal training sensitivity and specificity threshold (0.2456) and was processed by CBI to include the FTHL Borrego Badlands management area and to exclude areas outside of the species' historic range, based on data provided by Tony McKinny of US Fish and Wildlife Service. Agricultural areas south of the Salton Sea were selectively eliminated based on expert opinion.

The UCSB Biogeography Lab used Maxent to generate predictions of habitat occupancy for ~70 species for the CA Energy Commission’s project “Cumulative Biological Impacts Framework for Solar Energy in the CA Desert”, 500-10-021. Species distribution models were produced at 270 m resolution using a subset of 22 environmental variables. Models were evaluated with 10-foldcross validated AUC scores. Both continuous probability surfaces and binary layers are available for each species modeled. For Phrynosoma mcallii, Max Sensitivity + Specificity threshold = 0.2456; best AUC = 0.9314; mean AUC = 0.9286.