Pacific Northwest (USA) Projected Spotted Owl Habitat Occupancy for 2061-2090

This dataset represents projected spotted owl habitat probability of occupancy for the climate of 2061-2090 in the Pacific Northwest (USA) based on the mean habitat occupancy predictions from three representative climate projections: lowest warming (GCM GISS_ER with IPCC storyline B1), moderate warming (GCM ECHAM5 SRES with storyline A2), and highest warming (GCM IPSL_CM4 with storyline A2). This dataset is currently under development and subject to change. Please DO NOT DOWNLOAD THIS DATASET until it has been finalized (for more details contact carlos@klamathconservation.org) . In Carroll and others (in prep.), we evaluate how a system of reserves can be made resilient to climate change. First, we assess how well the NFP's reserve network currently protects habitat for spotted owl and rare "Survey and Manage" species. Then, we assess how these species will fare under climate change. Our results suggest that the spotted owl acts as fairly good "umbrella" species for protecting localized species. We identify additional coarse-scale priority areas for localized species, protection of which would allow achievement of the goals of the Survey and Manage program while reducing the resources necessary for pre-project surveys. We found that climate change will produce both winners and losers among the localized species. Whereas the net effect over all species may be neutral, protecting the losing species will require increasingly more area. Finally, we identify coarse-scale priority areas that can act as refugia for both the owl and localized species under climate change, thus potentially forming the foundations of a resilient reserve system. Predictive habitat models are based on climate and vegetation (Strittholt et al. 2006) variables. Owl models are based on a location dataset from Carroll and Johnson (2008). Colors are defined for percent chance of occupancy as follows: Light Beige: 1-10% Tan: 11-20% Brown: 21-30% Red-Brown: 31-40% Cyan: 41-50% Blue-Green: 51-60% Dark Green: 61-70% Blue: 71-80% Dark Blue: 81-90%