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Percent change in the average annual value of total ecosystem carbon between 1971-2000 and 2071-2000, as simulated by MC1 under CSIRO Mk3 A2 for the Apache-Sitgreaves study area, Arizona, USA
Percent change in the average annual value of total ecosystem carbon between 1971-2000 and 2071-2000, as simulated by MC1 under CSIRO Mk3 A2 for the Apache-Sitgreaves study area, Arizona, USA
This
map represents the percent change in total ecosystem carbon from 1971-2000 to
2071-2100, simulated by the model MC1 under the CSIRO Mk3 future climate
projection and A2 anthropogenic emissions scenario. The range of data values is
from -56.7% to +27.7%. The mean value is -12.7%.
The vegetation model MC1 (e.g. Bachelet et al. 2001) was used to
simulate vegetation dynamics, associated carbon and nitrogen cycle,
water budget, and wild fire impacts at two study sites in eastern
Oregon (Deschutes and Fremont-Winema National Forests) and in Arizona (Apache Sitgreaves National
Forest area) in the context of a project funded by the USDA Forest
Service (PNW 09-JV-11261900-003).
Historical climate
input data used to run the model were provided by the PRISM group
(Chris Daly, OSU) at a 30arc second (800m) spatial grain.
The model was
also run using future climate change projections from various general
circulation models including CSIRO Mk3 and MIROC 3.2 medres. Future
climate change climate datasets were generated through statistical
downscaling from general circulation model output using a simple
anomaly method and the
climatology (1971-2000) from the PRISM group at 30arc second spatial
grain.
The model was run assuming that nitrogen demand from
the plants was always met so that the nitrogen concentrations in
various plant parts never dropped below their minimum reported values.
A CO2 enhancement effect increased productivity and water use
efficiency as the atmospheric CO2 concentration increased.
Data Provided By:
David Conklin, Conservation Biology Institute
Content date:
not specified
Citation:
D.
Bachelet, R.P. Neilson, J.M. Lenihan, and R.J. Drapek. Climate Change Effects
on Vegetation distribution and Carbon Budget in the U.S.
2001. Ecosystems 4(3):164-185.
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The Conservation Biology Institute (CBI) provides scientific expertise to support the conservation and recovery of biological diversity in its natural state through applied research, education, planning, and community service.