Eastern United States Climate Change Tree Atlas - Suitable habitat for Prunus americana (wild plum) as measured by importance value (IV)

May 11, 2010
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Dataset was used in a scientifically peer-reviewed publication
Description:
This dataset represents actual and predicted suitable habitat for Prunus americana (wild plum, species code 766) in the Eastern United States as measured by importance value based on data obtained from the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) project, current climate conditions, and future climate projections. This summary unit of this dataset is a 20 by 20 kilometer cell. The actual importance value (IV) was calculated based on the number of stems and basal area of a given tree species relative to other tree species on a plot using about 100,000 FIA plots (representing nearly 3 million tree records) in the 37 states within the United States east of the 100th meridian. These importance values were summarized to 20 by 20 kilometer grid cells. Current estimates of IV were obtained from regression tree and regression tree ensemble (using Random Forests) classifiers using 38 environmental variables including measures of current climate conditions. Predictions based on future climate were obtained from applying these classifiers to the environmental variables including projections of future climate conditions derived from the downscaled output of selected general circulation models (HADCM3, PCM, and GFDL) for both low (B1) and high (A1F1) emissions scenarios. The reliability of the predictions for this species is Low. For more information about this dataset, please see the Climate Change Tree Atlas web page: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/tree/tree_atlas.html
Data Provided By:
Anantha M Prasad, Louis R Iverson, Steve Matthews, Matt Peters, USDA US Forest Service
Content date:
2007
Citation:
Title: Eastern United States Climate Change Tree Atlas - Suitable habitat for Prunus americana (wild plum) as measured by importance value (IV)
Credits: Anantha M Prasad, Louis R Iverson, Steve Matthews, Matt Peters, USDA US Forest Service
Publication Date: 2007
Publisher: USDA US Forest Service;
Online Linkages: Other Citation Info: This dataset should be cited as a member of the Tree Atlas: Prasad, A. M., L. R. Iverson., S. Matthews., M. Peters. 2007-ongoing. A Climate Change Atlas for 134 Forest Tree Species of the Eastern United States [database]. http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/tree, Northern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Delaware, Ohio. Citations pertinent to this dataset: Iverson, L. R. Prasad A. M. and S. Matthews. in press. Potential changes in suitable habitat for 134 tree species in the northeastern USA. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. Iverson, L. R., A. M. Prasad, S. N. Matthews, and M. Peters. in press. Estimating potential suitable habitat for 134 tree species in the eastern United States with tree ensemble methods and six possible future climate scenarios. Forest Ecology and Management. Schwartz, M. W., L. R. Iverson, A. M. Prasad, S. N. Matthews, O, and R. J. Connor. 2006. Predicting extinctions as a result of climate change. Ecology 87(7):1611-1615. http://www.esajournals.org/esaonline/?request=get-document&issn=0012-9658&volume=087&issue=07&page=1611 Prasad, A. M., L. R. Iverson, and A. Liaw. 2006. Newer classification and regression tree techniques: bagging and random forests for ecological prediction. Ecosystems 9:181-199. http://www.springerlink.com/content/gp71g7t277211725/fulltext.pdf Iverson, L. R., A. M. Prasad, and M. W. Schwartz . 2005. Predicting potential changes in suitable habitat and distribution by 2100 for tree species of the eastern United States. Journal of Agricultural Meteorology 61:29-37. http://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/agrmet/61/1/29/_pdf Matthews, S., R. O'Connor, L.R. Iverson, and A.M. Prasad. 2004. Atlas of climate change effects in 150 bird species of the Eastern United States. GTR-NE-318. USDA Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station. Newtown Square, PA. 340 pp. http://www.fs.fed.us/ne/newtown_square/publications/technical_reports/pdfs/2004/gtr318/ne_gtr318.pdf Iverson, L. R., M. W. Schwartz, and A. Prasad. 2004. How fast and far might tree species migrate under climate change in the eastern United States? Global Ecology and Biogeography 13:209-219. http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/9409 Iverson, L. R., A.M. Prasad, and A. Liaw. 2004. New machine learning tools for predictive vegetation mapping after climate change: Bagging and Random Forest perform better than regression tree analysis. Pages 317-320 in R. Smithers, Editor. Proceedings, UK-International Association for Landscape Ecology. Cirencester, UK. Prasad, A.M. and L.R. Iverson. 2003. Little's range and FIA importance value database for 135 eastern US tree species. Northeastern Research Station, USDA Forest Service. Delaware, Ohio. http://www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/4153/global/littlefia/index.html pp. Iverson, L. R. and A. Prasad. 2003. Using FIA data to assess current and potential future tree species importance values in the Eastern United States. Pages 171-172 in R. E. McRoberts, G. A. Reams, P. C. Van Deusen, and J. W. Moser, eds. Proceedings of the Third Annual Forest Inventory and Analysis Symposium. North Central Research Station, Forest Service U.S. Department of Agriculture, St. Paul, MN. http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/21916 Iverson, L. R. and A. M. Prasad. 2002. Potential redistribution of tree species habitat under five climate change scenarios in the eastern US. Forest Ecology and Management 155(1-3):205-222. http://www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/4153/iverson1.pdf Iverson, L. R. 2002. Biological trends in the United States: an annotated on-line review:http://www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/biotrends/biotrends.html. Schwartz, M. W., L. R. Iverson, and A. M. Prasad . 2001. Predicting the potential future distribution of four tree species in Ohio, USA, using current habitat availability and climatic forcing. Ecosystems 4:568-581. http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/21917 http://www.springerlink.com/content/6a6a31w95adrl5b0/fulltext.pdf Iverson, L. R. and A. M. Prasad. 2001. Potential changes in tree species richness and forest community types following climate change. Ecosystems 4:186-199. http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/21910; http://www.springerlink.com/content/gacgvb8d4mjcf05v/fulltext.pdf Hansen, A. J., V. Dale, C Flather, R. P. Neilson, P. Bartlein, L. Iverson, and D. Currie. 2001. Global change in forests: interactions among biodiversity, climate, and land use. BioScience 51(9):765-779. http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/2763 Easterling, M. M., D. R. DeWalle, L. R. Iverson, A. M. Prasad, A. Z. Rose, A. R. Buda, and Y. Cao. 2000. The potential impacts of climate change and variability on forests and forestry in the Mid-Atlantic Region. Climate Research 14:195-206. http://www.int-res.com/articles/cr/14/c014p195.pdf http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/21901 DeHays, D. H., G. L. Jacobson, P. G. Schaber, B. Bongarten, L. R. Iverson, and A. Kieffenbacker-Krall. 2000. Forest responses to changing climate: lessons from the past and uncertainty for the future. Pages 495-540 in R. A. Mickler, R. A. Birdsey, and J. L. Hom, editors. Responses of northern forests to environmental change. Springer-Verlag, Ecological Studies Series vol. 139, New York, NY. Prasad, A.M. and L.R. Iverson. 1999. A Climate Change Atlas for 80 Forest Tree Species of the Eastern United States [database]. http://www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atlas/index.html. Iverson, L. R. Prasad A. M. and M. W. Schwartz. 1999. Modeling potential future individual tree-species distributions in the Eastern United States under a climate change scenario: a case study with Pinus virginiana. Ecological Modelling 115:77-93. http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/22436 Iverson, L.R., A.M. Prasad, B.J. Hale, and E.K. Sutherland. 1999. An atlas of current and potential future distributions of common trees of the eastern United States. General Technical Report NE-265. Northeastern Research Station, USDA Forest Service. 245 pp. http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/7662 Iverson, L. R. and A. M. Prasad. 1998. Predicting abundance of 80 tree species following climate change in the eastern United States. Ecological Monographs 68:465-485. http://www.esajournals.org/esaonline/?request=get-document&issn=0012-9615&volume=068&issue=04&page=0465 http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/21909

Peer review citations:

Title: Predicting extinctions as a result of climate change
Credits: Schwartz, M. W., L. R. Iverson, A. M. Prasad, S. N. Matthews, O, and R. J. Connor
Publication Date: 2006
Publisher: Ecology
Other Citation Info: Schwartz, M. W., L. R. Iverson, A. M. Prasad, S. N. Matthews, O, and R. J. Connor. 2006. Predicting extinctions as a result of climate change. Ecology 87(7):1611-1615.
Contact Organization:
Northern Research Station, USDA Forest Service
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Use Constraints:
This dataset is provided in the public domain without warranty of any kind by the US Forest Service. Users are free to use this dataset but must cite authors correctly without in any way suggesting that the US Forest Service or authors endorse use of this dataset. Because this dataset is part of an ongoing effort, users are highly encouraged to contact the authors directly for updated versions. Users of this dataset are requested to inform the authors of their intended use of the data or provide citations to publications or reports in which the data are used; this information helps the authors quantify the usefulness of the data and ensure that the data continue to be made available and maintained.
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Tags:
forest composition, climate change, prunus americana, wild plum, forest change, species distribution

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Conservation Biology Institute

The Conservation Biology Institute (CBI) provides scientific expertise to support the conservation and recovery of biological diversity in its natural state through applied research, education, planning, and community service.