Future (2076-2095) predicted probability of marten
year-round occurrence projected under the A2 emissions scenario with the PCM1
GCM (Washington et al. 2000; Meehl et al. 2003). The projected marten
distribution was created with Maxent (Phillips et al. 2006) using marten
detections (N = 302, spanning 1990 – 2011) and nine predictor variables: mean
annual precipitation, mean summer (July – September) precipitation, mean summer
temperature amplitude, mean annual temperature maximum, mean fraction of
vegetation carbon burned, mean understory index, mean vegetation carbon (g C m2),
modal vegetation class, and average maximum tree LAI. Predictor variables had a
grid cell size of 10 km, vegetation variables were simulated with MC1 (Lenihan et al. 2008) and projected climate variables
were provided by the PRISM GROUP (Daly et al. 1994). This marten distribution
projection was generated as part of a pilot project to apply and evaluate the
Yale Framework (Yale Science Panel for Integrating Climate
Adaptation and Landscape Conservation Planning).
Grid Value Predicted
Probability of Occurrence
1
0 – 0.2
2
0.2 – 0.4
3
0.4 – 0.6
4
0.6 – 0.8
5
0.8 – 1.0
Reference:
Daly, C., R.P. Neilson, and D.L.
Phillips. 1994. A statistical topographic model for mapping climatological precipitation
over mountainous terrain. Journal of Applied Meteorology 33:140–158.
Lenihan,
J.M., D. Bachelet, R.P. Neilson, and R.J. Drapek. 2008. Simulated
response of conterminous United States ecosystems to climate change at
different levels of fire suppression, CO2 emission rate, and growth response to
CO2. Global and Planetary Change 64:
16-25.
Meehl, G.A., W.M. Washington,
T.M.L. Wigley, J.M. Arblaster, and A. Dai. 2003. Solar and greenhouse gas
forcing and climate response in the twentieth century. J Climate 16:426–444.
Phillips, S.J., R.P. Anderson, and R.E. Schapire. 2006. Maximum
entropy modeling of species geographic distributions.
Ecological
Modelling 190: 231-259.
Washington, W.M., J.W. Weatherly, G.A. Meehl,
A.J. Semtner, T.W. Bettge, A.P. Craig,
W.G. Stran, J. Arblaster, V.B. Wayland, R. James , and Y. Zhang. 2000. Parallel
climate model (PCM) control and transient simulations. Clim Dyn 16: 755–774.