Agreement in predicted marten year-round distribution
derived from future (2046-2065) climate projections and vegetation simulations
using 2 GCMs (Hadley CM3 (Johns et al. 2003) and MIROC (Hasumi and Emori 2004))
under the A2 emissions scenario (Naki?enovi? et al. 2000).
Projected marten distribution was created with Maxent
(Phillips et al. 2006) using marten detections (N = 302, spanning 1990 – 2011) and
nine predictor variables: mean winter (January – March) precipitation, mean
amount of snow on the ground in March, mean understory index (fraction of grass
vegetation carbon in forest), mean
fraction of total forest carbon in coarse wood carbon, average maximum tree
LAI, mean fraction of vegetation carbon burned, mean forest carbon (g C m2),
mean fraction of vegetation carbon in forest, and modal vegetation class.
Future climate drivers were generated using statistical
downscaling (simple delta method) of general circulation model projections
under the A2 emission scenario (Naki?enovi?
et al. 2000). The deltas (differences for temperatures and ratios for
precipitation) were used to modify PRISM 4km historical baseline (Daly et al.
1994). Vegetation variables were simulated with MC1 dynamic global vegetation
model (Bachelet et al. 2001). This data layer was generated as part of a
pilot project to apply and evaluate the Yale Framework (Yale Science Panel for
Integrating Climate Adaptation and Landscape Conservation Planning).
Grid value indicates number of projections with predicted
probability of marten occurrence >= 0.5.
Bachelet D., R.P. Neilson, J.M.
Lenihan, and R.J. Drapek. 2001. Climate change effects on vegetation
distribution and carbon budget in the U.S. Ecosystems 4:164-185.
Daly, C., R.P. Neilson, and
D.L. Phillips. 1994. A statistical topographic model for mapping climatological
precipitation over mountainous terrain. Journal of Applied Meteorology
33:140–158.
Hasumi, H., and S. Emori, Eds.
2004. K?1 Coupled GCM (MIROC) Description, K?1 Tech. Rep. 1, 34 pp., Cent. for
Clim. Syst. Res., Tokyo, Japan. Available online at http://www.ccsr.u?tokyo.ac.jp/kyosei/hasumi/MIROC/tech?repo.pdf
Johns, T.C., J.M. Gregory, W.J.
Ingram, C.E. Johnson, A. Jones, J.A. Lowe, J.F.B. Mitchell, D.L. Roberts,
D.M.H. Sexton, D.S. Stevenson, S.F.B. Tett, and M.J. Woodage. 2003.
Anthropogenic climate change for 1860 to 2100 simulated with the HadCM3 model
under updated emissions scenarios. ClimDyn 20: 583-612.
Naki?enovi?, N. and R. Swart,
Eds. 2000. Emissions Scenarios: A
Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K.
Phillips, S.J., R.P. Anderson, and R.E. Schapire. 2006. Maximum
entropy modeling of species geographic distributions.
Ecological
Modelling 190: 231-259.