Predicted probability of fisher year-round occurrence, 1986-2005, 800 m resolution

Predicted probability of fisher year-round occurrence created with Maxent (Phillips et al. 2006) using fisher detections (N = 302, spanning 1990 – 2011) and five predictor variables: mean annual  precipitation, mean summer (July – September) precipitation, mean understory index (fraction of grass vegetation carbon in forest), mean forest  carbon (g C m2), and mean fraction of vegetation carbon in forest.  Predictor variables had a grid cell size of 800 m by 800 m, vegetation variables were simulated with MC1 dynamic global vegetation model (Bachelet et al. 2001) and historical climate variables were provided by the PRISM GROUP (Daly et al. 2008). This fisher distribution model has a 10-fold cross-validated AUC of 0.836 +/- 0.054 and was generated as part of a pilot project to apply and evaluate the Yale Framework (Yale Science Panel for Integrating Climate Adaptation and Landscape Conservation Planning).

Grid Value                          Predicted Probability of Occurrence
1                                                                     0 – 0.2
2                                                                     0.2 – 0.4
3                                                                     0.4 – 0.6
4                                                                     0.6 – 0.8
5                                                                     0.8 – 1.0

Bachelet, D., R.P. Neilson, J.M. Lenihan, and R.J. Drapek. 2001. Climate change effects on vegetation distribution and carbon budget in the U.S. Ecosystems 4:164-185.

Daly, C., M. Halbleib, J.I. Smith, W.P. Gibson, M.K. Doggett, G.H. Taylor, J. Curtis, and P.A. Pasteris. 2008. Physiographically-sensitive mapping of temperature and precipitation across the conterminous United States. International Journal of Climatology 28: 2031-2064.

Phillips, S.J., R.P. Anderson, and R.E. Schapire. 2006. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions.  Ecological Modelling 190: 231-259.

Note: The MC1 model is described in data basin (http://databasin.org/climate-center/features/mc1-dynamic-global-vegetation-model).