This dataset represents projected spotted owl habitat probability of
occupancy for the climate of 2011-2040 in the Pacific Northwest (USA)
based on the mean habitat occupancy predictions from three
representative climate projections: lowest warming (GCM GISS_ER with
IPCC storyline B1), moderate warming (GCM ECHAM5 SRES with storyline
A2), and highest warming (GCM IPSL_CM4 with storyline A2). This
dataset is currently under development and subject to change. Please DO
NOT DOWNLOAD THIS DATASET until it has been finalized (contact
carlos@klamathconservation.org for details). In Carroll and others
(in prep.), we evaluate how a system of reserves can be made resilient
to climate change. First, we assess how well the NFP's reserve network
currently protects habitat for spotted owl and rare "Survey and
Manage" species. Then, we assess how these species will fare under
climate change. Our results suggest that the spotted owl acts as fairly
good "umbrella" species for protecting localized species. We
identify additional coarse-scale priority areas for localized species,
protection of which would allow achievement of the goals of the Survey
and Manage program while reducing the resources necessary for
pre-project surveys. We found that climate change will produce both
winners and losers among the localized species. Whereas the net effect
over all species may be neutral, protecting the losing species will
require increasingly more area. Finally, we identify coarse-scale
priority areas that can act as refugia for both the owl and localized
species under climate change, thus potentially forming the foundations
of a resilient reserve system. Predictive habitat models are based on
climate and vegetation (Strittholt et al. 2006) variables. Owl models
are based on a location dataset from Carroll and Johnson (2008). Colors
are defined for percent chance of occupancy as follows: Light Beige:
1-10% Tan: 11-20% Brown: 21-30% Red-Brown: 31-40% Cyan: 41-50%
Blue-Green: 51-60% Dark Green: 61-70% Blue: 71-80% Dark Blue: 81-90%