This dataset is a 270-m cell size raster representing projected percent change in relative probability of fire ignition from baseline to projected near term future (2020-2050) conditions using CNRM-CM5, RCP 8.5. The model used 11 explanatory variables: distance to development, distance to roads, minimum temperature, annual precipitation, dead wood biomass, summer precipitation, Santa Ana wind speed, topographic wetness index, slope, climatic water deficit, and topographic position. This model had a mean 10-fold cross-validated test AUC of 0.72, overall accuracy of 0.64, and TSS of 0.28.
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