We used a variable representing the fraction of each
grid cell that burns annually as simulated by the MC2 dynamic global
vegetation model using potential vegetation. We summed the values for every decade throughout the 21st
century across 20 CMIP5
climate projections for RCP 8.5. Values > 1 indicate areas that burn more than once during
the decade.
We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP (Climate Model Intercomparison Project), and the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP, the U.S. Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals.
Climate projections from the climate models were downscaled using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) Statistical Downscaling Method (Abatzoglou and Brown 2011).