Predicted probability of marten summer (May – November), occurrence, 1986-2005, 4 km resolution

Predicted probability of marten summer occurrence created with Maxent (Phillips et al. 2006) using marten detections (N = 197, May – November, spanning 1990 – 2011) and nine predictor variables: mean potential evapotranspiration, mean annual precipitation, mean summer temperature amplitude, mean fraction of vegetation carbon burned, mean forest carbon (g C m2), mean fraction of vegetation carbon in forest, understory index (fraction of grass vegetation carbon in forest),  average maximum tree LAI, and modal vegetation class. Predictor variables had a grid cell size of 4 km by 4 km, vegetation variables were simulated MC1 dynamic global vegetation model (Bachelet et al. 2001) and historical climate variables were provided by the PRISM GROUP (Daly et al. 1994). This marten distribution model has a 10-fold cross-validated AUC of 0.860 +/- 0.021 and was generated as part of a pilot project to apply and evaluate the Yale Framework (Yale Science Panel for Integrating Climate Adaptation and Landscape Conservation Planning).

Grid Value                          Predicted Probability of Occurrence
1                                                                     0 – 0.2
2                                                                     0.2 – 0.4
3                                                                     0.4 – 0.6
4                                                                     0.6 – 0.8
5                                                                     0.8 – 1.0

References:

Bachelet D., R.P. Neilson, J. M. Lenihan, and R.J. Drapek. 2001. Climate change effects on vegetation distribution and carbon budget in the U.S. Ecosystems 4:164-185.

Daly, C., R.P. Neilson, and D.L. Phillips. 1994. A statistical topographic model for mapping climatological precipitation over mountainous terrain. Journal of Applied Meteorology 33:140–158.

Phillips, S.J., R.P. Anderson, and R.E. Schapire. 2006. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions.  Ecological Modelling 190: 231-259.

Note: The MC1 model is described in data basin (http://databasin.org/climate-center/features/mc1-dynamic-global-vegetation-model).