Fire Probability (2026-2050) in Santa Barbara County, California

Jan 19, 2018 (Last modified Jan 8, 2021)
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Description:
Annual probability of fire occurrence (%), derived from Mann and Mortitz (2016) projections for 2026-2050. Source data represents projected mean fire return intervals (MFRI), derived under A2 emissions scenario in both GFDL and PCM climate models. MFRI projections for two models were combined by taking minimum MFRI for each cell, inverted to get annual probability, then multiplied by 100 to get percent value. Derivation was performed by the Fire and Resource Assessment Program (FRAP), California Department of Forestry and Fire protection (CAL FIRE).

Data was downloaded from the CPUC Fire Map (http://cpuc_firemap2.sig-gis.com/). Data were clipped for the Santa Barbara Buffered Boundary.

Data Provided By:
Michael L. Mann, Ph.D. (The George Washington University), Max A. Moritz, Ph.D. (UC Berkeley)
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Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
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