This dataset is a 270-m cell size raster representing the relative probability of fire ignition based on projected future (2020 - 2050) conditions under CNRM-CM5 GCM and RCP 8.5 emissions scenario. This model used 11 explanatory variables: distance to development, distance to roads, minimum temperature, annual precipitation, dead wood biomass, summer precipitation, Santa Ana wind speed, topographic wetness index, slope, climatic water deficit, and topographic position. This model had a mean 10-fold cross-validated test AUC of 0.72, overall accuracy of 0.64, and TSS of 0.28.
Data Analysis performed by CBI for the Regional Priority Planning Project, see report for details.
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