Predicted Lynx Habitat in the Northern Appalachians: No Population Cycling Scenario

This dataset depicts Lynx (Lynx canadensis) habitat in the Northern Appalachians predicted using the spatially explicit population model PATCH under the no population cycling scenario (A1; Carrol 2007). This dataset represents one of several scenarios testing the interacting effects of population cycling, trapping, territory size, and climate change on lynx populations. Static habitat suitability models for lynx were fed through PATCH to predict source and sink habitat areas across the landscape. The static models for lynx were created based on a logistic regression model of reported lynx locations against the proportion of the landscape in deciduous forest cover and annual snowfall. Demographic parameters were obtained from the literature and from calibration of the model. Several hundred individual model simulations were used to create this dataset. Lynx population cycling with respect to snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) density was addressed by scaling habitat quality values from the static habitat model to lynx demographic rates at different points in the population cycle. Three scenarios were created: no cycling, cycling only in the core area (Gaspe population), and cycling throughout the region. The influence of trapping was addressed by incorporating a 10% decrease in survival rate in the Gaspe and Quebec areas. The influence of climate change was addressed by incorporating predicted snowfall for 2055 from IPCC Scenario A2 into the static habitat model.