Business as Usual Development to 2040 (Sprawl)

Sep 7, 2016 (Last modified Apr 18, 2017)
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Description:
RTP-SCS Future Baseline Scenario - Business as Usual

The future baseline scenario shows forecast population growth
distributed in accordance with land uses allowed by existing local General Plans, assuming current sub-regional growth trends continue (which show population growth occurring predominantly in the North County and City of Santa Maria). It includes all programmed and planned Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) transportation projects.

The future baseline scenario is essentially a “business as usual” scenario, which assumes the following:
  • Existing, adopted General Plan land uses,
  • Construction of programmed and planned RTP projects.
The future baseline uses the UPlan land use model to distribute the regional population, household and jobs projected by the 2012 Regional Growth Forecast (RGF) in 2020, 2035 and 2040 to allowable adopted land uses in all jurisdictions throughout the region. Distribution of population, households, and jobs to the sub-regional level matches the RGF
allocation.

The future baseline scenario is the starting point for delineation of other alternative scenarios which are considered in the Regional Transportation Plan & Sustainable Communities Strategy (RTP-SCS) and is the primary basis for comparison of other scenarios.

This layer can be compared to the current countywide land use categories and the preferred scenario.

Data from the 2040 Regional Transportation Plan & Sustainable Communities Strategy prepared by the Santa Barbara County Association of Governments, found here.

Layer ID 232
Data Provided By:
Santa Barbara County Association of Governments
Content date:
2013
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Conservation Biology Institute
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Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
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Tags:
general plan, santa barbara county, planning, transportation, california, land use
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Conservation Biology Institute

We provide advanced conservation science, technology, and planning to empower our partners in solving the world’s critical ecological challenges