Mangrove forests: current and future distribution and abundance in the southeastern U.S.

These datasets are from an article published in Global Change Biology entitled “Winter Climate Change and Coastal Wetland Foundation Species- Salt Marshes vs. Mangrove Forests in the Southeastern U.S.” by Osland et al. (2013). Salt marshes and mangrove forests provide many important ecosystem goods and services. In addition to supporting important fish and wildlife habitat, these highly productive ecosystems improve water quality, store carbon, subsidize coastal fisheries, protect coastlines, and provide recreational opportunities. In this study, Osland et al. developed simple winter climate-based models to predict mangrove forest distribution and relative abundance using observed winter temperature data (1970-2000) and mangrove forest and salt marsh habitat data. Their results identify winter climate thresholds for salt marsh-mangrove forest interactions and highlight coastal areas in the southeastern U.S. (e.g., Texas, Louisiana, and parts of Florida) where relatively small changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme winter events could cause relatively dramatic landscape-scale ecosystem structural and functional change in the form of poleward mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement. The ecological implications of these marsh-to-mangrove forest conversions are poorly understood but would likely include changes for associated fish and wildlife populations and for the supply of some ecosystem goods and services.

More detailed information on these dataset is available in Osland et al. (2013).