These data represent probability of extreme fire behavior post-2021 developed by Pyrologix using the US Forest Service Fsim fire model. Extreme fire behavior utilizes the general threshold of 11-foot flame lengths, considered very difficult to control.
Operational-control probability rasters indicate the probability that the headfire flame length ineach pixel will exceed a defined threshold for a certain type of operational control. The three levels of control are manual control, mechanical control, and extreme fire behavior. We estimate these
probabilities by summing the WTP values for all weather types for which headfire FL exceeds the hreshold value.
In the summer and fall of 2020, Pyrologix used spatial datasets of historical weather and fire occurrence to parameterize and calibrate a comprehensive USFS fire modeling system called FSim to estimate annual burn probability across California. FSim also produced an “event set” that was later used to estimate transmission of fire damage to homes—from the origin locations of simulated wildfires to where their damage occurred. During this time, Pyrologix also applied a comprehensive simulation of potential wildfire behavior characteristics based on FlamMap, another US Forest Service fire modeling system.