This dataset represents projected survey and managed species probability
of occupancy for the climate of 2061-2090, averaged from the occurrence
probabilities of 130 survey and managed species. The survey and manage
species are rare localized species of concern under the Northwest Forest
plan, consisting of 75 species of fungi, 21 species of lichen, 10
species of bryophytes, 8 species of vascular plants, 12 species of
mollusks, 2 species of amphibians, one mammal, and one bird. Climate
data were drawn from three representative climate projections: lowest
warming (GCM GISS_ER with IPCC storyline B1), moderate warming (GCM
ECHAM5 SRES with storyline A2), and highest warming (GCM IPSL_CM4 with
storyline A2). In Carroll and others (in prep.), we evaluate how a
system of reserves can be made resilient to climate change. First, we
assess how well the NFP's reserve network currently protects habitat for
spotted owl and rare "Survey and Manage" species. Then, we
assess how these species will fare under climate change. Our results
suggest that the spotted owl acts as fairly good "umbrella"
species for protecting localized species. We identify additional
coarse-scale priority areas for localized species, protection of which
would allow achievement of the goals of the Survey and Manage program
while reducing the resources necessary for pre-project surveys. We found
that climate change will produce both winners and losers among the
localized species. Whereas the net effect over all species may be
neutral, protecting the losing species will require increasingly more
area. Finally, we identify coarse-scale priority areas that can act as
refugia for both the owl and localized species under climate change,
thus potentially forming the foundations of a resilient reserve system.
Predictive habitat models are based on climate and vegetation
(Strittholt et al. 2006) variables. Colors are defined for percent
occupancy as follows: Light Beige: 1-10% Tan: 11-20% Brown: 21-30%
Green: 31-40% Dark Green: 41-50%