This
map represents the percent change between 1971-2000 and 2071-2100 in
the amount of carbon in biomass consumed by fire, as simulated by the model
MC1 under the CSIRO Mk3 future climate projection and A2 anthropogenic
emissions scenario. The range of data values is from -100.0% to +1,784.6%.
The mean value is +27.9%. Data values are calculated as
(CONSUMED(2071-2100) minus CONSUMED(1971-2000)) divided by CONSUMED(1971-2000).
CONSUMED data is from MC1 version B60.
The vegetation model MC1 (e.g. Bachelet et al. 2001) was used to
simulate vegetation dynamics, associated carbon and nitrogen cycle,
water budget, and wild fire impacts at two study sites in eastern
Oregon (Deschutes and Fremont-Winema National Forests) and in Arizona (Apache Sitgreaves National
Forest area) in the context of a project funded by the USDA Forest
Service (PNW 09-JV-11261900-003).
Historical climate
input data used to run the model were provided by the PRISM group
(Chris Daly, OSU) at a 30arc second (800m) spatial grain.
The model was
also run using future climate change projections from various general
circulation models including CSIRO Mk3 and MIROC 3.2 medres. Future
climate change climate datasets were generated through statistical
downscaling from general circulation model output using a simple
anomaly method and the
climatology (1971-2000) from the PRISM group at 30arc second spatial
grain.
The model was run assuming that nitrogen demand from
the plants was always met so that the nitrogen concentrations in
various plant parts never dropped below their minimum reported values.
A CO2 enhancement effect increased productivity and water use
efficiency as the
atmospheric CO2 concentration increased.