Bull trout (USA) lower elevation limit under current (baseline) conditions

Apr 20, 2010
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Dataset was used in a scientifically peer-reviewed publication
Description:
A warming climate could profoundly affect the distribution and abundance of many fishes. Bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) may be especially vulnerable to climate change given that spawning and early rearing are constrained by cold water temperatures creating a patchwork of natal headwater habitats across river networks. Because the size and connectivity of patches also appear to influence the persistence of local populations, climate warming could lead to increasing fragmentation of remaining habitats and accelerated decline of this species. We modeled the relationships between (1) the lower elevation limits of small bull trout and mean annual air temperature and (2) latitude and longitude across the species potential range within the interior Columbia River basin of the USA. We used our results to explore the implications of the climate warming expected in the next 50 or more years. We found a strong association between the lower elevation limits of bull trout distributions and longitude and latitude; this association was consistent with the patterns in mean annual air temperature. We concluded that climate does strongly influence regional and local bull trout distributions, and we estimated bull trout habitat response to a range of predicted climate warming effects. Warming over the range predicted could result in losses of 18 to 92% of thermally suitable natal habitat area and 27 to 99% of large (greater than 10,000-ha) habitat patches, which suggests that population impacts may be disproportionate to the simple loss of habitat area. The predicted changes were not uniform across the species range, and some populations appear to face higher risks than others. These results could provide a foundation for regional prioritization in conservation management, although more detailed models are needed to prioritize actions at local scales.
 
    Data Provided By:
    Rieman et al. 2007. (see Other citation details section of metadata)
    Content date:
    not specified
    Citation:
    Title: Bull trout (USA) lower elevation limit under current (baseline) conditions
    Credits: Rieman et al. 2007. (see Other citation details section of metadata)
    Publication Date: 2007
    Publisher: American Fisheries Society
    Other Citation Info: Rieman et al. 2007. Anticipated Climate Warming Effects on Bull Trout Habitats and Populations Across the Interior Columbia River Basin. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 136 : 1552 to 1565.

    Peer review citations:

    Title: Anticipated Climate Warming Effects on Bull Trout Habitat and Populations Across the Interior Columbia Basin
    Credits: Rieman, B., D. Isaak, S. Adams, D. Horan, D. Nagel, C. Luce, D. Meyers
    Publication Date: 2007
    Publisher: Transactions of the American Fisheries Society
    Other Citation Info: Rieman, B., D. Isaak, S. Adams, D. Horan, D. Nagel, C. Luce, D. Meyers., 2007. Anticipated Climate Warming Effects on Bull Trout Habitat and Populations Across the Interior Columbia Basin.Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, 136:1552-1565
    Contact Organization:
    US Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Boise Aquatic Sciences Laboratory
    Contact Person(s):
    Use Constraints:
    January 29, 2009 Important notice regarding GIS data related to the publication: Rieman, B., D. Isaak, S. Adams, D. Horan, D. Nagel, C. Luce, D. Meyers., 2007. Anticipated Climate Warming Effects on Bull Trout Habitat and Populations Across the Interior Columbia Basin .Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, 136:1552-1565. These GIS data are intended to assist users in understanding general patterns in bull trout distributions and inferring potential alteration of these distributions with changes in future mean annual air temperatures. The data have been developed specifically for bull trout and are not intended for use with other aquatic organisms unless similar linkages with air temperatures can be established. The data are most appropriate for broad scale displays and inference (i.e., map scales ~ 1:1,000,000) and should not be applied at finer scales, where local conditions may cause significant deviations from model predictions. The lower limit bull trout model predicts accurately (R2 = 0.74) across the Columbia River basin, but has a RMSE of 180 m (RMSE = average elevation difference between observed values and model predictions). This amount of error would easily obscure meaningful inference when applied to an individual stream. U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station Boise Aquatic Science Lab 322 E. Front St., Suite 401 Boise, ID 83702
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    About the Uploader

    Jeremiah Osborne-Gowey
    Aquatic/Landscape Ecologist with Conservation Biology Institute

    Jeremiah Osborne-Gowey is an aquatic/landscape ecologist with more than 15 years of Federal, State, and educational natural resource experience. His experience includes aquatic and terrestrial species habitat survey and inventory, invasive-species monitoring, natural resource impact analyses, public...