Predicted probability of fisher year-round occurrence, 2046-2065, CSIRO Mk3 A2, 800 m resolution

Predicted probability of fisher year-round occurrence derived from future (2046-2065) climate projections and vegetation simulations. Projected fisher distribution was created with Maxent (Phillips et al. 2006) using fisher detections (N = 302, spanning 1990 – 2011) and five predictor variables: mean annual precipitation, mean summer (July – September) precipitation, mean understory index (fraction of grass vegetation carbon in forest), mean forest carbon (g C m2), and mean fraction of vegetation carbon in forest.

Future climate drivers were generated using statistical downscaling (simple delta method) of general circulation model projections, in this case CSIRO Mk3 (Gordon 2002) under the A2 emission scenario (Naki?enovi? et al. 2000). The deltas (differences for temperatures and ratios for precipitation) were used to modify PRISM 800m historical baseline (Daly et al. 2008). Vegetation variables were simulated with MC1 dynamic global vegetation model (Bachelet et al. 2001).  This fisher distribution projection was generated as part of a pilot project to apply and evaluate the Yale Framework (Yale Science Panel for Integrating Climate Adaptation and Landscape Conservation Planning).

Grid Value                          Predicted Probability of Occurrence
1                                                                     0 – 0.2
2                                                                     0.2 – 0.4
3                                                                     0.4 – 0.6
4                                                                     0.6 – 0.8
5                                                                     0.8 – 1.0

Bachelet D., R.P. Neilson, J.M. Lenihan, and R.J. Drapek. 2001. Climate change effects on vegetation distribution and carbon budget in the U.S. Ecosystems 4:164-185.

Daly, C., M. Halbleib, J.I. Smith, W.P. Gibson, M.K. Doggett, G.H. Taylor, J. Curtis, and P.A. Pasteris. 2008. Physiographically-sensitive mapping of temperature and precipitation across the conterminous United States. International Journal of Climatology 28: 2031-2064.

Gordon, H.B., L.D. Rotstayn, J.L. McGregor, M.R. Dix, E.A. Kowalczyk, S.P. O’Farrell, L.J. Waterman, A.C. Hirst, S.G. Wilson, M.A. Collier, I.G. Watterson, and T.I. Elliott.  2002. The CSIRO Mk3 climate system model. CSIRO Atmos. Res. Tech. Pap., 60, 130 pp., Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia.

Naki?enovi?, N. and R. Swart, Eds.  2000. Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K.

Phillips, S.J., R.P. Anderson, and R.E. Schapire. 2006. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions.  Ecological Modelling 190: 231-259.