Pacific Northwest Predicted Survey and Manage Species Occupancy for Current Climate

This dataset represents predicted survey and manage species probability of occupancy for the current climate, averaged from the occurrence probabilities of 130 survey and manage species. The survey and manage species are rare localized species of concern under the Northwest Forest plan, consisting of 75 species of fungi, 21 species of lichen, 10 species of bryophytes, 8 species of vascular plants, 12 species of mollusks, 2 species of amphibians, one mammal, and one bird. In Carroll and others (in prep.), we evaluate how a system of reserves can be made resilient to climate change. First, we assess how well the NFP's reserve network currently protects habitat for spotted owl and rare "Survey and Manage" species. Then, we assess how these species will fare under climate change. Our results suggest that the spotted owl acts as fairly good "umbrella" species for protecting localized species. We identify additional coarse-scale priority areas for localized species, protection of which would allow achievement of the goals of the Survey and Manage program while reducing the resources necessary for pre-project surveys. We found that climate change will produce both winners and losers among the localized species. Whereas the net effect over all species may be neutral, protecting the losing species will require increasingly more area. Finally, we identify coarse-scale priority areas that can act as refugia for both the owl and localized species under climate change, thus potentially forming the foundations of a resilient reserve system. Predictive habitat models are based on climate and vegetation (Strittholt et al. 2006) variables. Colors are defined for percent occupancy as follows: Light Beige: 1-10% Tan: 11-20% Brown: 21-30% Green: 31-40% Dark Green: 41-50%