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  • Climate Change

Climate Change

Jun 29, 2014 (Last modified Dec 9, 2015)
Created by Boreal Avian Modelling Project
Climate Change

About

The boreal forest biome provides a resource-rich environment for breeding birds, supporting high species diversity and bird numbers. These birds are likely to shift their distributions northward in response to rapid climate change over the next century. We used a comprehensive dataset of avian point-count surveys from across boreal Canada and Alaska, combined with interpolated climate data, to develop bioclimatic niche models of current avian distribution and density for 80 boreal-breeding songbird species. We then used a downscaling of projected future climates to assess the potential for these species to change their distribution and abundance in response to climate change. Note that projections represent potential densities based on climatic conditions, land use and topography. They do not account for physiographic barriers such as the northern extent of the Rocky Mountains that may prevent colonization of otherwise suitable habitat. Therefore current species’ distributions may be over-estimated in certain regions, particularly in Alaska.

Boosted regression tree models of species distribution were averaged across two sets of covariates (climate-only and  climate + land use + topography), 11 bootstrap samples, and four global climate models. Mean projections and uncertainty estimates (coefficient of variation) are available for the current period (based on climate data from 1961-1990) and three future time periods (2011–2040, 2041­–2070, 2071–2100). 

Reference:
Stralberg, D., S. M. Matsuoka, A. Hamann, E. M. Bayne, P. Sólymos, F. K. A. Schmiegelow, et al. 2015. Projecting boreal bird responses to climate change: the signal exceeds the noise. Ecological Applications 25:52–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/13-2289.1

Contact:
Diana Stralberg, University of Alberta (stralber@ualberta.ca)
Boreal Avian Modelling Project

Access bird prediction layers in ascii format:
BirdAscii

Access climate data layers in ascii format:
ClimateNA

Tags
distribution model, climate change, boreal birds

This gallery is visible to everyone

Gallery contains
6 Folders
172 Datasets
Usage
Bookmarked by 3 Groups
Project sponsors:
Boreal Avian Modelling (BAM) Project
Alberta Biodiversity Management and Climate Change Adaptation Project

Data providers:
BAM avian data contributors
Current and projected climate data for North America 

BAM Founding organisations and funders:
Environment Canada
University of Alberta
Canadian BEACONs Project

Financial supporters:
USFWS Neotropical Migratory Bird Conservation Act
Vanier Canada Graduate Scholarships

Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Institute
Alberta Innovates Technology Futures
Alberta Pacific Forest Industries Inc.
Climate Change and Emissions Management Corporation
Joint Canada-Alberta Implementation Plan for Oil Sands Monitoring
Killam Trusts
Landscape Conservation Cooperatives
National Fish and Wildlife Foundation
Université Laval

Special thanks to the Breeding Bird Survey:
We thank the hundreds of skilled volunteers in Canada and the US who have participated in the BBS over the years and those who have served as State , Provincial or Territorial coordinators for the BBS. 

and to the Breeding Bird Atlases of Canada:
We thank the Breeding Bird Atlas Projects of British Columbia, Manitoba, Maritimes, Ontario and Quebec for supplying data, the thousands of volunteers involved in the data collection, the regional coordinators, as well as the various atlas project partners.

About the Gallery Author

Boreal Avian Modelling Project

The Boreal Avian Modelling Project is a collaborative science program committed to improved understanding of the ecology of birds and their habitats in the boreal region of North America.Using quantitative modelling techniques and a comprehensive dataset assembled from projects across the continent,...

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