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- Utah and the Colorado Plateau Climate Sensitivity, Exposure and Potential Impacts
Utah and the Colorado Plateau Climate Sensitivity, Exposure and Potential Impacts
May 10, 2016
Created by
Tim Sheehan
About
We have
used the Environmental Evaluation Modeling System (EEMS) to create fuzzy logic
models to assess the potential for ecological impacts of climate change in Utah
and the Colorado Plateau. The first of these models combined soil
characteristics with potential evapotranspiration for a metric of site
sensitivity to climate change. The second used changes over time in
precipitation, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and aridity to produce
a measure of climate change exposure. This model was run for time periods
2015-2030 and 2045-2060 using each of five climate futures as well as the
ensemble mean of the five futures. The third model combined the results of the
first two models for a metric of potential climate impacts.
Results reveal a complex pattern of site sensitivity across the study area with areas of high sensitivity locally driven by soil pH, wind erodibility, and low available water capacity. Climate exposure increases for all models through time and is more strongly influenced by changes in minimum temperature in the northern portion of the region and changes in maximum temperature in the southern portion. Precipitation change has virtually no influence. Potential climate impacts are generally highest along the southern portion of the study area and lowest in the Wasatch and Uinta mountains as well as the mountain ranges to the south of the Great Salt Lake.
Results reveal a complex pattern of site sensitivity across the study area with areas of high sensitivity locally driven by soil pH, wind erodibility, and low available water capacity. Climate exposure increases for all models through time and is more strongly influenced by changes in minimum temperature in the northern portion of the region and changes in maximum temperature in the southern portion. Precipitation change has virtually no influence. Potential climate impacts are generally highest along the southern portion of the study area and lowest in the Wasatch and Uinta mountains as well as the mountain ranges to the south of the Great Salt Lake.
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Tim Sheehan
Barry Baker
Conservation Biology Institute
About the Gallery Author
Tim Sheehan
Ecological Modeler with Conservation Biology Institute
I am a senior ecological modeler at the Conservation Biology Institute. I hold a Ph. D. in Environmental Sciences and masters degrees in Geology, Computer Science, and Biology. My expertise includes vegetation and ignitions modeling (regional assessment of ignition probabilities, regional to...
