Data used in the peer reviewed article:
Fire, CO2, and climate effects on modeled
vegetation and Carbon dynamics in western Oregon and Washington
currently under review with Plos One.
Abstract:
To develop effective long-term strategies, natural resource
managers need to account for the projected effects of climate change as well as
the uncertainty inherent in those projections. Vegetation models are one
important source of projected climate effects. We explore results and
associated uncertainties from the MC2 Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for the
Pacific Northwest west of the Cascade crest. We compare model results for
vegetation cover and carbon dynamics over the period 1895-2100 assuming: 1) unlimited
wildfire ignitions versus stochastic ignitions, 2) no fire, and 3) a moderate
CO2 fertilization effect versus no CO2 fertilization
effect. Carbon stocks decline in all scenarios, except without fire and with a
moderate CO2 fertilization effect. The greatest carbon stock loss,
approximately 23% of historical levels, occurs with unlimited ignitions and no
CO2 fertilization effect. With stochastic ignitions and a CO2
fertilization effect, carbon stocks are more stable than with unlimited ignitions.
For all scenarios, the dominant vegetation type shifts from pure conifer to
mixed forest, indicating that vegetation cover change is driven solely by
climate and that significant mortality and vegetation shifts are likely through
the 21st century regardless of fire regime changes.