Get Started

Your workspace is your dashboard for accessing and managing your content, bookmarks, and groups, as well as viewing messages and seeing your recently viewed content.

You need to be signed in to access your workspace.

Data Basin |
Maps |
Future Human Footprint: Scenario 1 - Current Trends

Future Human Footprint: Scenario 1 - Current Trends

Jan 18, 2014

Created by 2C1Forest

Export

Open Map

Description: Imagine that the trends underway in the 1990's continued into the coming decades. Where people were leaving the land to move to cities, they continued to leave. Where people were flocking - coastal areas, ski areas near urban centers - they continued to flock.

The Future Human Footprint is a model of how the Northern Appalachian/Acadian ecoregion may look in the future. It is based on the Human Footprint. The Future Human Footprint models DYNAMIC aspects of the human footprint that have salient ecological effects. The Future Human Footprint forecasts the distribution of human settlement over the coming decades (20-40 years presumed accuracy). Rather than predicting ONE future, it suggests several. Each future is based on conditions set under a specified scenario.

Growth scenarios are accomplished in several ways: 1) by modeling current trends forward in time, 2) by modeling what would happen if the ecoregion developed in a way analogous to similar regions, 3) by predicting future distribution of ecologically salient aspects of the human footprint based on historical patterns.

This map shows the Future Human Footprint - Current Trends Scenario. Under Current Trends, the growth rates of counties in this region are projected forwards. Also, the probability of new, residential roads is calculated and added to existing road networks. A moderate level of conversion of "wild lands" - unsettled landscapes - around high value amenities is included. The forecasted components are integrated into the Future Human Footprint with the Current Human Footprint.

Location

Credits: Robert Baldwin

Use Constraints: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

This map is visible to everyone

Tags: northern appalachians, future human footprint

Included in 1 Public Gallery

About the Map Author

2C1Forest

with Two Countries, One Forest

A Canadian-U.S. collaborative of conservation organizations, researchers, foundations and conservation-minded individuals. Our international community is focused on the protection, conservation and restoration of forests and natural heritage from New York to Nova Scotia, across the Northern...