Summary
A
study by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Gulf Coastal Plains
and Ozarks Landscape Conservation Cooperative (GCPO LCC) and the Department of
Interior Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, evaluated the hydrologic
response of a daily time step hydrologic model to historical observations and
projections of potential climate and land cover change for the period
1952-2099. An application of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was
used to develop the hydrologic simulations. The
model simulations were used to compute the potential changes in hydrologic
response across the southeastern U.S. using historical observations of climate
and streamflow, and 13 downscaled general circulation models with four
representative concentration pathways representing a range of potential future
changes in climate.
The PRMS simulated
hydrologic response within the entire geographic study area – the model domain.
The model domain was subset into small
local watersheds delineating areas expected to have a similar hydrologic
response due to changes in the model inputs.
These local watersheds are called “hydrologic response units” or
HRUs.
The
PRMS computes flow generated locally on each HRU for each time step. These flow
components then are directed to stream segments (SEGs) for flow aggregation. These segments connect the network of HRUs to
simulate accumulated streamflow from the upstream watershed. Each HRU and SEG has
a unique ID. For each HRU and SEG, 52 summary
streamflow metrics (Index of Hydrologic Alteration or IHA metrics) were calculated
based on the daily flow outputs. A
description of each IHA metric may be found here
(streamflow_description_table.xlsx).
The summary information
presented here shows geospatial results from three main components:
1) The model domain for
HRUs (local watersheds) and SEGs (accumulated flow segments). Each HRU and SEG is labeled with a unique ID
may be associated with model results using this unique ID. Original
data here: https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/597f2f6ce4b0a38ca2774b3f
2) The future percent difference
from historical conditions for each HRU and SEG and for each of 50 IHA metrics (two
metrics excluded due to a predominance of missing values). The results are based on the difference
between future conditions in 2045-2075 and historical conditions from
1952-2005. Values are expressed as the
percent difference based on a median of 45 future scenarios. https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/597b37bbe4b0a38ca27563d4
Data source - HRU: “Summary of percent
change in statistics by GCM/RCP scenario by HRU”
stats_difference_hru_gcm_v2_csv
Data source - SEG: “Summary of percent
change in statistics by GCM/RCP scenario by SEG”
stats_difference_seg_gcm_v2_csv
3) Results from a test (Kolmogorov-Smirnov
or KS test) of model agreement. Results are measure of the model skill in
accurately reproducing observed historical conditions. Higher values means higher confidence in
model output. Lower values means lower
confidence in model output. Data sources:
not published?
Purpose
The streamflow
statistics were selected to describe streamflow conditions that may be most
useful in defining the suitability for each river or stream to support
sustaining populations of priority aquatic species across the GCPO LCC. The
data presented here are intended to provide more easily accessible landscape
scale summary information in support of the USGS flow modeling project.