Climate Change Impacts in Santa Barbara County (Draft)

Climate change is a unifying threat to every species and resident of Santa Barbara County. With population centers spread along the 135 mile coastline, broad economic dependence on agriculture and a reliance on highly variable and local water resources, the region’s human population will be tested in its ability to adapt to a changing climate and sea level rise.

This guide and case study identifies 4 broad categories of climate change impacts:

• Drought and Mainland Flooding
• Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding
• Fire Risk and Vulnerabilities

In the following sections for each impact area graphs, data, and maps on the Atlas are available to help you explore the information currently available to identify the risks from these projected impacts and help plan for countywide adaptation.

Drought and Mainland Flooding

Flooding and drought cycles have been a part of the California and Santa Barbara landscape since humans have lived here. The volatility of these cycles will likely become more frequent under the effects of climate change.

Recent modeling of future scenarios show that peak stream flows may increase from 10-44% with expected increases in the 100yr flood discharges. This study was done for the South Coast of Santa Barbara, but the findings indicate shorter rainy seasons with higher flood discharges.

To see the current FEMA flood zones and 100 year flood zones (1% annual chance of flooding) click on the map below:

Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding

In Southern California sea level rise is expected to rise 0.7-1.2 feet by 2050. In many cases, existing development lies close to areas vulnerable to coastal hazards such as sea level rise, coastal erosion, flooding, and storms. Coastal habitats such as beaches, bluffs, and wetlands will increasingly be caught in the coastal squeeze where they are constrained from migrating inland, putting both infrastructure and natural resources at risk.

Luckily all of the south coast communities are actively planning at multiple scales to deal with the effects of rising sea level and changing climate. The County has many active studies and/or plans in place, including the County’s Sea Level Rise and Coastal Hazards Vulnerability Assessment, the Santa Barbara Area Coastal Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment report, the City of Goleta Draft Coastal Hazards Vulnerability and Fiscal Impact Report, and the 2015 Goleta Slough Area Sea Level Rise and Management Plan.

To see those areas expected to be inundated from sea level rise storm surges and the impacts their predicted to have click on the map below:

Fire Risk and Vulnerabilities

Fire has played an ever larger role in people's minds as wildland fires have grown in size and frequency: Over 970,000 acres have burned in Santa Barbara County since 1950, with the majority caused by people (direct ignition/power lines/machinery). Nearly half of the acreage burned since 1950 has occurred within the past two decades. As shown by Montecito mudlsides that preceded the Thomas Fire, initial burns are not the only threats that we face from fires.

To see the regions most prone to wildfires and those areas likely to experience debris flows as a result of the past years fires click on one of the maps below: