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Fire forecast and drought indices for the conterminous USA using the MC1 vegetation model
Nov 8, 2010
(Last modified Jul 3, 2012)
Created by
Conservation Biology Institute
About
In 2004, James Lenihan
(USFS) received funding from the National Fire Plan (NFP) to apply the MC1 dynamic global vegetation model to the
problem of seasonal-length fire forecasting for the conterminous
USA.
An MC1 fire forecasting system was designed in which observed monthly climate data are interpolated by the PRISM (www.ocs.orst.edu/prism ) model to a relatively fine resolution (initially 50 km but currently 4 km resolution) modeling grid. With funding from NFP, these observed monthly data grids have been continuously updated to incorporate newly available observations.
Future climate forecasts are available through cooperation with the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI ) of Columbia University which provides monthly updates of 7-month future climate forecasts from five different general circulation models (GCMs) of the global atmosphere.These GCMs come from the University of Maryland (COLA), the University of Hamburg (ECHAM4.5), the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (NCEP), NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies (NSIPP), and the Scripps Oceanographic Institute (ECPC).
These relatively coarse-scaled forecast data are downscaled to the finer-scale modeling grid using a statistical anomaly or delta downscaling approach and a 30-year observed climatology.
MC1 is run with the climatic data up to the last observed month. The results are then used to initiate MC1 runs for the 7-month period of each of the available weather forecasts. Consensus forecasts for fire-related variables are constructed from the combined results of individual forecast runs.
An MC1 fire forecasting system was designed in which observed monthly climate data are interpolated by the PRISM (www.ocs.orst.edu/prism ) model to a relatively fine resolution (initially 50 km but currently 4 km resolution) modeling grid. With funding from NFP, these observed monthly data grids have been continuously updated to incorporate newly available observations.
Future climate forecasts are available through cooperation with the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI ) of Columbia University which provides monthly updates of 7-month future climate forecasts from five different general circulation models (GCMs) of the global atmosphere.These GCMs come from the University of Maryland (COLA), the University of Hamburg (ECHAM4.5), the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (NCEP), NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies (NSIPP), and the Scripps Oceanographic Institute (ECPC).
These relatively coarse-scaled forecast data are downscaled to the finer-scale modeling grid using a statistical anomaly or delta downscaling approach and a 30-year observed climatology.
MC1 is run with the climatic data up to the last observed month. The results are then used to initiate MC1 runs for the 7-month period of each of the available weather forecasts. Consensus forecasts for fire-related variables are constructed from the combined results of individual forecast runs.
Specific products included in this gallery include:
1. Fire potential,
2. Standardized Precipitation Index or SPI: probability index that considers only precipitation, while Palmer's indices are water balance indices that consider water supply (precipitation), demand (evapotranspiration) and loss (runoff).
3. Palmer Drought Severity Index or PDSI: measurement of dryness based on recent precipitation and temperature, developed by meteorologist Wayne Palmer, who first published his method in the 1965 paper Meteorological Drought for the Office of Climatology of the U.S. Weather Bureau.
4. 1000 hour fuel moisture: moisture content of organic fuels (3 to 8 " diameter), expressed as a percentage of the oven dry weight of the sample, that is controlled entirely by exposure to environmental conditions.
5. and energy release component-G (ERC-G): National Fire Danger Rating System index related to how hot a fire could burn. It is directly related to the 24-hour, potential worst case, total available energy (BTUs) per unit area (in square feet) within the flaming front at the head of a fire. The National Fuel Model G corresponds to dense conifer forests.
forecasts based on 7-month weather forecast models.
At the beginning of each fire season, the MC1 fire forecasts are presented to fire managers from all nine western Geographic Area Coordination Centers (GACCs) attending the Western National Seasonal Assessment Workshop (NSAW) sponsored by the Predictive Services Group of the National Interagency Coordination Center (NICC), and are routinely incorporated into NICC’s seasonal weather/climate/fuels outlooks for the western GACCs. And currently over 160 land managers from various resource agencies are alerted each month to new fire forecasts posted on the MAPSS web site via an ever-growing email list.
Consensus forecast data are now also uploaded to Data Basin and updated monthly.
1. Fire potential,
2. Standardized Precipitation Index or SPI: probability index that considers only precipitation, while Palmer's indices are water balance indices that consider water supply (precipitation), demand (evapotranspiration) and loss (runoff).
3. Palmer Drought Severity Index or PDSI: measurement of dryness based on recent precipitation and temperature, developed by meteorologist Wayne Palmer, who first published his method in the 1965 paper Meteorological Drought for the Office of Climatology of the U.S. Weather Bureau.
4. 1000 hour fuel moisture: moisture content of organic fuels (3 to 8 " diameter), expressed as a percentage of the oven dry weight of the sample, that is controlled entirely by exposure to environmental conditions.
5. and energy release component-G (ERC-G): National Fire Danger Rating System index related to how hot a fire could burn. It is directly related to the 24-hour, potential worst case, total available energy (BTUs) per unit area (in square feet) within the flaming front at the head of a fire. The National Fuel Model G corresponds to dense conifer forests.
forecasts based on 7-month weather forecast models.
At the beginning of each fire season, the MC1 fire forecasts are presented to fire managers from all nine western Geographic Area Coordination Centers (GACCs) attending the Western National Seasonal Assessment Workshop (NSAW) sponsored by the Predictive Services Group of the National Interagency Coordination Center (NICC), and are routinely incorporated into NICC’s seasonal weather/climate/fuels outlooks for the western GACCs. And currently over 160 land managers from various resource agencies are alerted each month to new fire forecasts posted on the MAPSS web site via an ever-growing email list.
Consensus forecast data are now also uploaded to Data Basin and updated monthly.
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MAPSS team, United States Forest Service
About the Gallery Author
Conservation Biology Institute
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